After five years in a row of deficits, the copper market should show a production surplus in 2015, according to the International Copper Study Group.
The ICSG forecasts a deficit of refined copper this year of about 270,000 tonnes, before swinging to a surplus next year of an estimated 390,000 tonnes.
In April the ICSG had forecast a surplus in 2014 of 400,000 tonnes. But “operational failures combined with delays in ramp-up production and start-up of new mines, are leading to lower than anticipated growth,” the ICSG stated in its Copper Market Forecast 2014-15 released Oct. 15 after a two-day meeting at the beginning of the week in Lisbon, Portugal.
After a growth rate of 8% in 2013, world mine production of the metal is expected to grow by about 3% year-on-year in 2014 to 18.6 million tonnes, and by about 7% in 2015, ICSG says. It expects strong growth in world mine production next year “owing to additional output from expansions and new mine projects” and says “most of the new production is expected to be in the form of copper in concentrate.”
According to analysts at Investec Securities, however, “delays in bringing new capacity on stream, and disruption of output from major mines, is an ongoing feature of the mining industry and we would not be surprised to see ICSG’s forecast surplus eroded by more of the same.”
Read the complete article at NorthernMiner.com/news/icsg-forecasts-copper-surplus
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