Opinion: Canadians must match American urgency in the race for critical minerals

In the cavernous halls of the U.S. State Department last week, something unusual was on display: earnest cooperation rather than the usual diplomatic theatre. The inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial wasn’t about tariffs, trade tantrums, or chest-thumping press releases. It was, quite simply, a collective admission that the West is behind, China is ahead, and time is not on our side.

For the United States, the stakes are no longer academic. Critical minerals aren’t just inputs for batteries and wind turbines. They are strategic building blocks for modern defence, advanced manufacturing and economic independence. This is not a commodities story anymore. It’s a power story. And Washington gets it.

The Trump administration is backing ambitious measures, including a proposed $12-billion (C$16.3-billion) stockpile of essential raw materials – “Project Vault” – meant to shield U.S. industry from shocks and reduce reliance on Beijing’s dominance. The Americans have discovered, rather late in the game, that you cannot build fighter jets, EVs, or the next industrial economy off of Chinese processing plants.

Closing the gap

The shift in tone at the Ministerial, from coercion to collaboration, reflects something deeper than diplomacy. It reflects anxiety. Because for all the tough talk of trade wars, the United States knows that to close the gap between the West and China it will take collaboration on a grand scale coupled with an internal build-up of Ameria's own intellectual and physical capacity. 

One senior U.S. official captured the moment perfectly: the goal now is to persuade America’s brightest young minds not to join the next Silicon Valley startup, but to enter mining and minerals engineering. It seems mining is back, not as nostalgia, but as necessity.

Of course, the question lingers: after a year of transactional American diplomacy, are allies skeptical? More than likely. But reality has a way of concentrating minds. China’s dominance – roughly 60% of mining and nearly 90% of processing in key sectors – is not something you diversify away from with a well-worded communiqué. Western nations know they cannot afford inaction, even if coordination occasionally requires holding one’s nose.

For Canada, the implications are profound.

Sleeping giant hitting snooze?

Canada is blessed with world-class deposits: gold, lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, copper, rare earths. These raw materials will determine who leads the next industrial era. Geologically, we are sitting at the grown-ups’ table. Strategically, we too often act like we’re still waiting in the lobby.

Because geology is not strategy. Reserves alone do not confer power. Processing and refining do. And that is where Western supply chains, Canada included, still lag badly.

Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy, backed by nearly C$4 billion and coordination across 15 federal departments, aims to build resilient value chains from mine to midstream to manufacturing. Ottawa has also helped unlock 26 investments and partnerships worth billions under the G7’s Critical Minerals Production Alliance. Canada is looking better on paper. The question is whether we can be good in practice. And at speed.

Three initiatives matter most: the Critical Minerals Strategy and infrastructure funds meant to build domestic supply chains rather than exporting raw rock and importing finished product; the G7 Production Alliance investments mobilizing capital into graphite, rare earths and scandium; and emerging national funding mechanisms, including proposals for a Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund to back equity and offtake agreements. 

The policy wheels are turning, but Canada will not get where it needs to go on the back of good intentions and interdepartmental working groups. Too often, political leadership excels at saying the right things and then falls down on execution. Canada’s chronic weakness is not vision. It is velocity.

Sharp minds but who’s moving fast?

To Ottawa’s credit, there are now some serious economic minds closer to the centre of power. Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, brings senior experience from Goldman Sachs and Ontario Teachers’ pension fund. He’s earned strong marks from the resource sector so far.

Michael Sabia is the Clerk of the Privy Council, Canada’s highest-ranking civil servant, who manages the government’s agenda. Sabia is a rare figure whose credibility resonates as strongly in boardrooms as in ministries. He has been shaped by leadership roles at Bell Canada, Hydro-Québec and Quebec’s largest pension, CDPQ.

Both men understand the stakes. But the question remains: Do they have the willingness and the support to accelerate critical mineral development at the pace that this moment requires?

From the sidelines of the Ministerial, the scuttlebutt was that high-ranking U.S. officials are talking about single-month permitting timelines for strategically important projects. Single-month. In Canada, we call that “the early stages of preliminary consultation.” Even if Washington’s timeline is aspirational, next to Canada’s glacial system it should be deeply uncomfortable. Permitting reform is not a bureaucratic detail. It is a strategic imperative.

Canada’s Arctic, long treated as a distant abstraction, is becoming a frontier of real geopolitical value. Like Greenland, its mineral wealth is suddenly coveted. And rightly so.

But sovereignty is not flag-planting. Sovereignty is capacity. To unlock the North, Canada needs infrastructure: ports, rail, grids, logistics, and the ability to assert presence. Canada’s current plans remain incremental where the moment demands boldness. We must ask ourselves: are we building what’s needed for resource security, or watching opportunities pass while others consolidate alliances and claims?

Closing the window

Canada has the geological assets, the intellectual capital, and the partnerships to lead in the era of critical minerals. Our strategies appear sound. Our intentions are sincere. But intention is not a supply chain.

In this competition of geopolitics and economics, hand-wringing will spell victory for our rivals and a dangerous loss for Canada. Canada must streamline permitting drastically, scale industrial infrastructure, and harness the full force of government, capital markets, and industry. The stakes – sovereignty, economic independence, and global influence – are too high to settle for anything less.

History does not reward countries that move slowly while the world scrambles for leverage. And right now, leverage is buried in the ground.

Anthony Vacarro is Publisher of the TNM Group, which includes MINING.COM, The Northern Miner and Canadian Mining Journal.