Experts: Policy uncertainty still chasing away mining capital

Mining experts Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari of the Fraser Institute warn that Canada is failing to attract the mining investment it needs, even as global demand for minerals that power electric vehicles, renewables, semiconductors and AI climbs.

“We have the resources and the workers — what’s missing is predictable, investment‑friendly policy,” Mejía said. “Without clearer rules, capital will go where certainty exists.”

Mejía, a policy analyst, and Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies, point to stagnant exploration spending — roughly $4.2 billion in 2023, $4.1 billion in 2024 and an estimated $4.2 billion in 2025 — and a broader decline in sector investment to $13.4 billion in 2024, down from $15.5 billion the year before and far below the inflation‑adjusted $20.5 billion peak in 2012, a drop of about 34 percent.

The authors draw on the Fraser Institute’s global investor survey to show that many Canadian jurisdictions with strong mineral deposits nonetheless lag on policy measures that matter to investors. Yukon, British Columbia and Manitoba, for example, sit among the top 13 jurisdictions for mineral potential but fall to 47th, 31st and 39th respectively when evaluated on policy settings. By contrast, Alberta, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Saskatchewan place in the global top 10 on policy factors.

Northern regions fare particularly poorly: Nunavut and the Northwest Territories rank 17th and 19th for potential but slide to 43rd and 54th on policy, the report finds.

Investors, the survey indicates, consistently point to regulatory uncertainty — especially over protected areas and disputed land claims — as a central deterrent. Nearly 70 percent of respondents focused on B.C., 89 percent in the Northwest Territories and 71 percent in Yukon flagged disputed land claims as a major barrier, compared with just 4 percent in Nevada and 7 percent in Arizona. Worries about protected areas were cited by 72 percent in B.C., 75 percent in New Brunswick and 79 percent in the Northwest Territories, versus 11 percent in Utah and 21 percent in Nevada.

Mejía and Aliakbari stress that these policy shortcomings have concrete costs. In 2024, mining accounted for 21 percent of Canada’s domestic exports and produced $156 billion in economic output. The industry supported about 724,000 direct and indirect jobs and paid nearly twice the average compensation of other sectors. The Fraser Institute also notes the mining sector provided more than 17,300 jobs for First Nations communities, according to the 2021 census.

The authors say policymakers must deliver clearer, more predictable and competitive frameworks to keep Canada competitive for critical minerals investment as global demand grows. Without that, they warn, capital will continue to look elsewhere.

More information is available at www.FraserInstitute.org