Canadian Mining Journal


Industry performance will remain under pressure in 2016, Moody’s says

After a “material compression” of industry earnings this year, Moody’s Investors Service forecasts that the earnings contraction will continue next year.

“China’s slowdown and continued weakness in global economies will maintain downward pressure,” the credit ratings and research company said in its latest report on the outlook for global base metals, U.S. steel and North American coal.

For base metals, Moody’s forecasts a further 10% to 15% decline in 2016 from 2015 levels of earnings before taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), and says costs, liquidity and debt-maturity profiles “remain key considerations.”

“Slow Chinese growth (Nov. PMI 48.6 versus Oct. 48.3, Sept. 47.2) and GDP-level concerns, together with weak or contracting global trends, particularly Europe and Brazil, will hurt demand [and] prices in 2016,” the report states, noting that falling oil and a strong U.S. dollar are “not enough to offset plunging prices.”

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