COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. – Washington’s hostility towards Canada threatens its effort to reduce dependence on Chinese minerals, former U.S. sanctions official Edward Fishman said Monday.
The United States has the money and political will to invest in mineral supplies but needs Canadian and Australian mining expertise to develop them, Fishman, a former Obama Administration official who left government in 2017, told the Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs. Working more closely with those allies would strengthen U.S. economic security, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow said.
“I think if we are going to antagonize Canada, it’s going to be virtually impossible for us to get out of this dependence from China,” he said. “We can’t do it. We, as in the United States, cannot do it without the Canadians.”
The warning highlights a contradiction in Washington’s minerals strategy: securing supplies requires cooperation with allies even as trade disputes strain those relationships. For miners, that creates both an investment opportunity and uncertainty over where they can build, process and sell their output.
Fishman, who helped design U.S. sanctions against Russia and Iran and now directs CFR’s Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics, said mining has become central to competition previously dominated by finance and technology.
Countries are trying to exploit their control over essential supplies while reducing their vulnerability to restrictions imposed by rivals. China’s mineral-processing industry gives it leverage comparable to Washington’s influence over dollar payments and advanced technology, he argued.
That concentration is particularly pronounced in rare earths used in magnets. China accounted for 91% of their global refined output in 2024, compared with 60% of mined production, according to the International Energy Agency. Chinese export controls introduced in April last year disrupted magnet supplies and forced some automakers to curtail or temporarily halt production, the agency said.
Fishman cautioned against treating economic confrontation as a temporary feature of President Donald Trump’s administration. While Trump favours tariffs and targets allies as well as adversaries, successive U.S. administrations have expanded their use of economic pressure, he said.
Mining investments outlast election cycles, making persistent competition over supply chains a business concern regardless of who holds office.
Centerra Gold (TSX: CG; NYSE: CGAU) offers an example of a Canadian miner investing in U.S. industrial supply.
The Toronto-based company is restarting its Thompson Creek molybdenum mine in Idaho to supply its Langeloth processing facility in Pennsylvania. First mine production is targeted for mid-2027, with restart capital estimated at $425 million to $450 million (C$602.5 million-C$640 million), according to its latest quarterly results.
Molybdenum strengthens steel used in energy infrastructure, defence and aerospace. Centerra CEO Paul Tomory said its U.S. business stood to benefit from expanding domestic steel production.
“So we believe we have a U.S.-based business here that is very attractive in the context of the current reindustrialization push, particularly in the steel supply chain that is taking place in the U.S.,” Tomory told the conference during a separate presentation.
Investors had questioned why a gold and copper company was restarting a molybdenum mine, he said. As construction advanced, the perception of the business as a liability had faded, he said.
Centerra remains open to an initial public offering or separation of the business, but won’t rush a transaction at the expense of shareholder value, Tomory said.
Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) CEO Rob Krcmarov made a related argument about the investment value of operating in lower-risk countries. Its three operating silver mines are Greens Creek in Alaska, Lucky Friday in Idaho and Keno Hill in Yukon.
“Lower jurisdictional risk, it means security in our future cash flows and our production,” he told the forum earlier Monday.
That supports a premium valuation for Hecla, Krcmarov said. The company also plans to grow through assets it already owns, allowing it to control the pace of investment without relying on acquisitions.
Governments still need to define what secure mineral supply means, Fishman said. Eliminating dependence on China is a different objective from reducing it to an acceptable level.
Mining companies should help policymakers establish realistic targets and explain how proposed measures would affect their operations. Governments set sanctions and trade policies, but businesses implement them and understand the practical constraints, he said.
Dividing the world economy into competing blocs brings risks including higher energy costs, inflation and uncertainty, Fishman said. Yet it can also benefit miners. Demand linked to artificial intelligence and electrification supports copper demand, while concern about financial security encourages central banks to hold gold.
Structural reasons exist for sovereign gold buying to continue for at least another decade, though that doesn’t mean gold will replace the dollar across all its uses, Fishman said. Gold can gain ground as a store of value while other currencies compete in payments and trade.
Despite his warning about Washington’s treatment of Ottawa, Fishman remained optimistic about the relationship. U.S. reliance on Canadian resources provides a reason to repair ties, he said, while Canada’s efforts to diversify its export markets needn’t weaken the alliance.
“I think a Canada that has a little bit more independence may actually be a better ally for the United States.”
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